QR’s Azureian Draw Analysis
by queridorafa
Azureian’s not a real word, by the way. But I’m getting tired of the word blue, and “azure,” while an adjective, didn’t quite roll off the tongue the way I wanted it to, not the way “luxurious” did. Luxurious set a very high standard, clearly. So, yeah. I added a few letters. And thanks, Madrid! You’ve officially made me tired of the name of a color.
So, the azureian draw is, as noted below with my extremely sophisticated mark-up, essentially a disaster.
Particularly disastrous is Rafa’s opening round, which is against either Karlovic or Davydenko. Davydenko, as I’m sure everyone knows, has a winning record against Rafa (6-4) and in fact has beaten him on the last 4 occasions. Wow. That’s worse than I thought. Obviously Davydenko’s ranking has plummeted (to #56), but he also obviously has a game that can trouble Rafa, and additionally also, an annoying habit of playing his best tennis against Rafa. Karlovic is Karlovic–and Karlovic at altitude is even worse than normal Karlovic. So it’s really the worst possible opener for Rafa. He has had fairly decent draws in the past few tournaments, so I guess he was somewhat due for a doozy, but I feel that facing Isner–now a top 10 player–in the first round at RG last year should have exempted Rafa from all future tough opening rounds. I feel like this is a very reasonable request.
The one thing I take solace in is that at least Rafa’s not alone: Roger has an equally so-ridiculous-as-to-be-laughable opening round, against Raonic (seriously, how is his ranking so low that he can face Roger in the second round?? Get it together, Milos! Although, his win last week against Muzz is looking slightly less impressive given Muzz’s back injury and subsequent withdrawal from Madrid. But, Milos pushed David to two tie-breaks even after that.) or Nalby. Of course, Nalby will likely be a bit fatigued/under-adapted to the conditions if he continues to advance in Belgrade (he’s in the semis), because he will arrive late to Madrid. So yeah. Rafa definitely has it worse. The wurst!
Meanwhile, what of Novak? Novak is, as usual, sitting pretty in the upper left-hand corner, ready to take on those oh-so-dangerous qualifiers. Luckily, I am feeling good about a potential Manislas run. I can’t really say why–it’s possibly just because I enjoy saying the world “Manislas”–but yeah, I’m predicting the ‘slas to make it all the way to semis, after double-bageling Novak in the 3rd round. Pretty solid prediction. In the semis, ‘slas will most likely face Qualifier (i.e. PHM), because I think Roger is probably a little rusty. Seriously, the older the players get, the more difficult I think it is for them to just “jump back in” to the action after an extended vacation and/or injury break (which is why I really do fear for Roddick and Fish when they return–I don’t think it’s going to be pretty (and in fact, we already saw that last year, with Roddick–he got blitzed by Muzz in Queens, and went out to Feli at Wimbledon.)).
Meanwhile meanwhile, on the part of the draw above Rafa, there is, as usual, danger lurking, with Isner, DelPo, Youzhny, Dolg-man (I actually can see Dolg-man excelling on blue clay–would just kind of make sense, wouldn’t it?), and a few other people. Oh yeah, Harrison. How the heck did Harrison get a WC into Madrid? Plus, I thought he made a big deal last year about wanting to “earn” his way into every draw, etc. etc., and that’s why he chose to play qualies in RG instead of vying for the USTA wildcard, and then he ended up losing and not getting in. Obviously he has changed his mind (and I don’t really blame him, to be honest–but it just goes to show, sometimes it’s better to not take big principled stances on things when you’re like, 18.) So given this talent, I think it makes the most sense to choose Javier Marti, the up-and-coming Spaniard who almost beat Fer in Brazil, as the likely semi-finalist. Rafa will play him (after defeating the oldie but goodie Juanqui in the quarters), and then finally, squeak past Qualifier (again, most likely PHM) in two tight sets in the final, 7-5, 6-4.
To conclude, here is a picture of Rafa today, making friends with the blue clay.
One of the best posts especially because it made me laugh so much. When u started coloring the font omg lol. Then I saw this draw with hand write, lmao, Smurf Open brilliant. Might as well you should’ve have added some of the Gargamel stuff ;p
Ivo is the one that maybe is more dangerous cause of his service. And especially cause Davydenko if I’m not wrong was defending champ this week, and he went out on his first match, anyways if he wasn’t defending champ he went out very early.
If Rafa advances deep on the draw, we know the better he gets once he gets used to the court, and he has momentum cause of Barcelona and MC, and finally he had time to practice, time to get used to clay prior his debut match, unlike MC where he got there a little rusty from his injury and little time to practice.
Heh having problems with the tenses I’m talking about how he’ll have time to get used to prior his debut. Sigh Nick.
Oh, no problem! Your meaning was understood!
Thanks! I think that’s a good point, if Rafa can get through that opener and pick up some momentum, good things can happen. Davy did indeed go out in the 1st round of munich, where he won last year. Of course now he’s probably ready to play his best! Ivo is just no fun to play…
While everyone shivers when Dr. Ivo’s name is mentioned, the atp says Davy and Ivos h2h is 6-0 in favor of Davy. Rafa and Dr. Ivo h2h is 4-0 in favor of Rafa. On the other hand, Davy and Rafa’s h2h is 6-4 in favor of Davy. But, while all matches played on hc have gone Davy’s way, all those played on clay have gone to Rafa. So, if Davy wins it would be proof enough that the smurfy blue surface they’re playing on must NOT be clay.
And yes, Nole has a most envious draw.
Interesting, I didn’t realize the h2h for Ivo and Davy was so lopsided! Hopefully we won’t get that proof, though!
I’m so distracted today–when I read Nicolas’s comment I went back and said “Oh, the pretty blue font”–SMH. Your draw is hilarious–mine would look like that if I actually had a working printer and was able to scrawl comments on it. Actually my handwriting is so bad it would look as if it was the property of the crazy stalker on Criminal Minds. But the level of angst would be similar. It is nice to see Juanqui’s name in the draw. Other than that, my reaction was not suitable for a blog that kids might read. Even with **s. Oh well, maybe @TennisGods will give me a pleasant surprise for once!
“It is nice to see Juanqui’s name in the draw. ”
Yes, it is, isn’t it?
Lol on the working printer; definitely not the norm for me either! My handwriting was on its best behavior-it’s really degenerated over the years, b/c it’s rarely used! Tennis gods!
It cracks me up how common references to them are–they’ve become accepted members of the tennis community!
And there are pix of Tommy Robredo practicing, which make me very happy. The tennis gods have been mean to him of late! You can follow @TennisGods–if your favorite has a horrible draw, at least you have someone to blame
Ooh, thanks for the tip!:)
Now I see what Rafa means about all this blue. I could hardly read this post, but I bravely read on through the blue, blue, blueueueue. I’m not all that worried about Madrid. Everything will be fine. Going back to read your predictions now. Hoping they’re not in blue.
Loving this blog, as always.
Thanks! That was my goal–to reproduce the disorientation/inscrutableness of the clay!
I find your calmness re: Madrid calming. I hope you’re right!
You know how sometimes things look perfect on the surface but turn out to be disastrous? Not that I’m the sort of person to harbor ill-wishes towards anyone (goodness me), but I won’t mind if Someone’s tame draw turns out to be, like, ferocious #justsayin. Meanwhile, maybe Rafa’s situation (apparently that’s what I’m calling this, a situation) in Madrid will somehow end up…positive. Somehow. Yes. I’m ready to put a positive spin on, just about everything that happens from now on because otherwise I’ll just be shaking my head for possibly the entire week.
Above all, I just want Rafa to come out of this healthy. Strong and healthy Rafs! You hear me!? Rarr.
Forgot to say, love the handwriting! (And needless to say, lovely analysis
)
Haha, thanks! I definitely was doing my best to make it legible for once!
That’s so true–so often, the draws turn out much different than we think they will!
Oh, and it’s definitely “a situation.” I think Fer played Ivo first round in Madrid last year? Or the year before, and won, so that gives me hope. And if Rafa plays Davy, he’ll be extra motivated in front of his home crowd especially. But still. The danger level is a little ridiculous.
And yes–healthy is really the key! I heard that Rafa uttered the magic word–”perfect”–in relation to his knees, so hopefully it will stay that way for a long while!
To help forget for a moment about disastrous, dangerous, annoying and above all about azureian, take a look at beauty captured by a fan at MC.
A minute of peace while waiting to be interviewed:
http://s13.postimage.org/ihipmd92t/DSC04637.jpg
http://s13.postimage.org/aflaczbjp/DSC04612.jpg
http://s13.postimage.org/8xzu1f6t1/DSC04609.jpg
Being interviewed:
http://s9.postimage.org/f2rj10n65/DSC04669.jpg
OK, as you were. Azureian…
Aw, these are lovely, thanks! I even kind of like the 5-o’clock shadow!
These pics are brilliant! I like both scowling Rafa and smiling Rafa
Man…….. those eyes!
Those. pictures. are. gorgeous.
#thatisall
Actually, that isn’t all. Thank you so much, Jelena, for the find.
LO freaking L….Manislas…mini giants…slumpers….oh the tears….that’s all I have energy for…thx for the hearty guffaws. P.s. I think u have a thing for PHM…;). Not that theres anything wrong with that….
I think since RG showed those best points, where PHM won the point with a drop shot agaisnt Rafa, she joked all around about him being clay goat hahaha. I supposed that’s why.
Lol, very true–I never forget these things! Much like Manislas, I also just like saying his name–quite musical sounding w/ all the syllables!
Thanks, glad you liked! I do kind of like PHM, I must admit–ever since I saw that footage of him having the almost-fight w/ Mardy Fish. Something kind of attractive about a French guy almost fist-fighting w/ Mardy…;)
Me myself, I find PHM kind of hot, so I understand. I’m also something of a francophile, and you’re right, saying the name out loud in French is quite a treat for the tongue
Love your draw analysis, esp. the slumpers and giants (or as they’re known around my house…Trees!!) But you know Novak is not really going to go down 6-0, 6-0 to Manislas….I predict it will be more like 6-1, 6-0. Just trying to be realistic.
BTW , why do the top 8 men’s seeds get first round byes but not the women’s??
Thank you! Trees is another apt descriptor! And you’re totally right–6-1, 6-0 is definitely more realistic!
I didn’t realize the men’s/women’s draws had a different system! That is rather surprising.
I meant to put this comment here (I’m sufficiently distracted that I put it in the other thread):
I’d like to think Novak has a little less of a cakewalk (though I’ll always admit to the possibility of wishful thinking).
Feli’s in his quarter, and this is his “home” tournament. Remember how he almost took out Roger (was it last year?).
Also, Wawa did take Roger out in Rome a couple of years ago. Though I do believe in feng shui — have you noticed some people play better in some cities than others, and in other cities struggle no matter what they do, unless the planets align just right? I used to think NYC wasn’t great for Rafa (I still think that; 2010 aside when the planets all seemed to line up – it was just his year) — I also think both Wawa’s claycourt skill and ambition to scalp another big-four-er may be underrated. So there’s that.
And then we move to the issue of the “old man”. I’ve heard more than once that Roger’s on-court relaxed practices are very much for show; behind closed doors he’s literally wearing out sixteen-year-olds. I’m honestly not sure we should count him out.
It’s true, Feli is definitely a potential tough one, although he’s just so inconsistent on clay! But the altitude does help his serve. I don’t know, though, he might be a little finicky w/ the blue clay!
I love your astrological analyses–it is true that some cities just seem like “happy places” for certain players, while others, not so much!
I definitely would not count Roger out; I guess I just see a greater chance of his game going off on clay/in altitude and after a break than under other circumstances. But then again, he also often proves to adjust quicker/better than a lot of other players, which is a huge advantage!
Loved this post as much as your personal side notes on the draw sheet. Clearly the mark of a true sports journalist. Esp. loved the hearts surrounding Rafa’s name #precious!!
Aw, thanks! The hearts were my favorite part…took me back to drawing in middle school notebooks, haha!
Great post! I love the all of your writing on the draw, and may have to use it as the background to my computer.
Thanks, Emma! Haha, my handwriting would be honored to be the background!